The 2026 World Cup is unlike any tournament that came before it. For the first time in history, 48 teams enter the competition. Twelve groups play out across three host nations. The top two from each group advance automatically, joined by the eight best third-place finishers, creating a brand new Round of 32 before the knockout stage that fans are used to. The Round of 32 runs from June 28 to July 3, the Round of 16 from July 4 to 7, and the Quarterfinals on July 9 and 10. The champion will play eight matches in total, one more than any previous World Cup winner.
All of that extra complexity makes predicting the Quarterfinals genuinely difficult. There are more paths, more potential upsets, and more opportunities for a dark horse to emerge. But some things are still predictable. The best squads in the world have the quality and depth to navigate the new format, and the bracket rewards group winners with more favourable early knockout draws.
Here is our full, group-by-group analysis and our prediction for all eight Quarterfinalists.
Understanding the New Format First
Before we get into the predictions, it is worth explaining exactly how the 2026 format works, because it changes the calculus significantly compared to previous tournaments.
The bracket is structured so that teams from the same group cannot meet until the Quarterfinals or later. That means you could see France versus Argentina or Spain versus Brazil in the Quarter-Finals matches that in a 32-team tournament would only happen in the final. The expanded format creates the possibility of elite-level clashes earlier than ever before.
With that context established, here is our group-by-group breakdown, leading into our eight predicted Quarterfinalists.
The Groups and Who Advances
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa
NBC Sports predict Mexico and Czech Republic to qualify from Group A. Mexico are the hosts and play all three group games on home soil, which gives them a significant psychological and atmospheric advantage. The roar of the Estadio Azteca crowd will carry them through tough moments. South Korea have Son Heung-min and can cause problems, but Mexico’s home advantage tips the balance. Czech Republic are a solid, well-organised European side.
Our prediction: Mexico first, Czech Republic second.
Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar
Canada are another host nation with considerable home support, and they have improved enormously as a football nation since 2022. Alphonso Davies gives them genuine match-winning quality. Switzerland are the quiet, reliable operators of world football, they qualify for everything and make it difficult for everyone. NBC Sports predict Switzerland and Canada to qualify from Group B. We agree, with Switzerland likely to top a group that has no elite team at its summit.
Our prediction: Switzerland first, Canada second.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
This is the group with the most interesting storyline. Brazil are one of the tournament favourites. Four years ago, Morocco became the first African team to reach the World Cup semi-finals and they have not slowed down since, losing just once on the field over the last two years. A Brazil versus Morocco game in Group C is one of the most anticipated matches of the entire group stage.
Brazil should win this group comfortably on paper. Morocco will be organised, disciplined, and dangerous, especially with Bounou in goal and Hakimi providing attacking threat from right-back. Scotland are making history just being there. Haiti will be competitive but overwhelmed.
Our prediction: Brazil first, Morocco second.
Group D: USA, Turkey, Australia, Paraguay
The United States play all three group games in American venues, giving them thunderous home support. NBC Sports predict Turkey and USA to qualify from Group D. Turkey are a genuinely strong side, with the creative quality of Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz giving them match-winning potential. Australia are solid and should not be underestimated after their 2022 run. But USA at home, with a packed crowd and Christian Pulisic in form, should find a way through.
Our prediction: USA first, Turkey second.
Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Curacao, Ivory Coast
Germany should win this group and win it convincingly. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala in the same midfield gives them the most exciting creative partnership in the tournament. Ecuador and Ivory Coast will both push for second place. NBC Sports predict Germany and Ecuador to qualify from Group E. Curacao face Germany in their first ever World Cup game, a landmark occasion for the tiny island nation.
Our prediction: Germany first, Ecuador second.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
The Netherlands could be the sleepers of the tournament and should win the group comfortably, but Japan will cause problems for Ronald Koeman’s side. Japan topped a group including Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup. They have the technical quality and tactical discipline to do something similar again. Sweden and Tunisia will find it very difficult to break into the top two here.
Our prediction: Netherlands first, Japan second.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium are backed to qualify from this group, no longer the golden generation they were in 2018 but still a strong, well-organised side. Egypt have Mohamed Salah, which changes every calculation around them. A fully fit Salah leading their attack makes Egypt legitimately dangerous. Belgium should top the group but Egypt will push them hard and qualify in second.
Our prediction: Belgium first, Egypt second.
Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde
Spain enter as a major tournament favourite led by superstar Lamine Yamal. The group will not be straightforward against an experienced Uruguay side that only allowed 12 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualification games. A Spain versus Uruguay game for group supremacy would be one of the best matches of the group stage. Spain should come through, but Uruguay are well-equipped to be a dangerous second-placed team heading into the knockouts.
Our prediction: Spain first, Uruguay second.
Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
This is almost certainly the toughest group in the entire tournament. France are favourites to win the World Cup. Senegal are one of Africa’s strongest sides with Koulibaly, Mane, and Mendy. Norway have Haaland and Odegaard. The France versus Norway game is the most anticipated group-stage match in the tournament. France appear primed for another title push. Senegal remain a dangerous dark horse, while Norway and Erling Haaland could genuinely disrupt this group.
France have too much quality to top the group. Norway’s firepower through Haaland will be enough to see them past Senegal into second. But this will be a genuinely brutal group where a strong side goes home early. Our prediction is Senegal as the unlucky elimination.
Our prediction: France first, Norway second.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
Argentina should win this group with relative comfort, though their injury-hit preparation raises some early concerns. Algeria will be organised and motivated, they face Messi and Argentina in their opening match, which will be one of the most-watched group games in World Cup history. Austria are a disciplined European side. Jordan are tournament debutants.
Argentina’s experience and quality is too strong for this group. The only question is whether they manage their fitness properly and arrive at the knockout rounds with key players sharp and available.
Our prediction: Argentina first, Austria second.
Group K: Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo
Portugal enter the tournament as legitimate title contenders with a roster stacked with talent from back to front, and the possibility of Ronaldo’s final World Cup only sharpens the focus. Colombia are one of the most in-form South American sides heading into this tournament and could make things genuinely uncomfortable for Portugal in the group stage. Uzbekistan and DR Congo are making history just by being there.
Our prediction: Portugal first, Colombia second.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
England are heavy favourites to win Group L. With Bellingham, Kane, Rice, Saka, and Rashford all in the squad, they have the quality to dominate every game at group stage level. Croatia are making their fifth consecutive World Cup under Luka Modric’s captaincy, and the 40-year-old legend will want to go out on a high. Ghana and Panama will be competitive but will struggle to break into the top two.
An AI simulation predicts Croatia to top Group L, which would be a major surprise. We disagree. England are simply too strong. But Croatia under Modric are capable of making it extremely uncomfortable for them along the way.
Our prediction: England first, Croatia second.
Through the Round of 32 and Round of 16
Based on our group predictions, the Round of 32 and Round of 16 produce the following results as the bracket narrows toward the Quarterfinals.
The key principle is that group winners draw more favourable opponents at the Round of 32 stage — most facing third-place teams. By the time the Round of 16 arrives, the bracket starts to produce the heavyweight clashes we have been anticipating all tournament.
Working through the projected paths of each predicted group winner and runner-up, and accounting for likely third-place qualifiers from the weaker groups, here is how we see the eight Quarterfinalists emerging.
Our 8 Predicted Quarterfinalists — With Full Reasoning
Quarterfinalist 1: France
France win Group I comfortably and navigate the Round of 32 against a third-placed qualifier without serious difficulty. In the Round of 16, their most likely opponent is Colombia or Switzerland. An AI simulation of the tournament projects France as one of the four semi-finalists, and it is hard to see any obstacle between them and the Quarters given their squad depth. Mbappe, Dembele, Maignan, Saliba, Kante. This squad handles any opponent across six knockout games. France are priced at +500, making them the second favourites to win the entire tournament.
Quarterfinalist 2: Spain
Spain win Group H and have a manageable path through the Round of 32 and Round of 16. Their likely Round of 16 opponent based on the bracket structure is a runner-up from a neighbouring group, potentially Ecuador or a strong third-place qualifier. Spain are the tournament favourites at +475 and with Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and Saliba’s French counterpart in their own young defensive core, they have the quality to reach the Quarterfinals without being stretched. The key is keeping Yamal healthy throughout.
Quarterfinalist 3: England
England win Group L and face a third-place qualifier in the Round of 32, which should be straightforward. In the Round of 16, they could face Germany or Netherlands depending on how the bracket falls. England’s attack is the strongest of the top three contenders. Kane, Bellingham, and Saka give them three match-winners who can produce the decisive moment in any game. England have the squad to reach the Quarterfinals and the talent to go all the way. The Round of 16 is where their tournament genuinely begins.
Quarterfinalist 4: Argentina
Argentina win Group J and have a favourable Round of 32 path against a third-placed team. The Round of 16 is where it gets interesting. A potential match against Portugal or Colombia would be a genuine heavyweight clash. Argentina remain built for high-pressure knockout matches and possess an edge in composure and quality that most teams cannot match. Their injury concerns should be resolved by the time the knockout rounds begin. The defending champions know how to survive the early rounds of a World Cup and build momentum toward the end.
Quarterfinalist 5: Brazil
Brazil win Group C, likely facing a manageable third-placed opponent in the Round of 32 before a tougher Round of 16 clash. The AI simulation projects Brazil as one of the four semi-finalists, a realistic outcome given their squad quality under Ancelotti. Vinicius, Raphinha, Endrick, and Rodrygo give them attacking depth that rivals anyone. If Ancelotti’s structure functions as it does at Real Madrid, Brazil will arrive at the Quarterfinals in full flow with goals and momentum.
Quarterfinalist 6: Portugal
Portugal win Group K and use their Round of 32 game to build match sharpness for Ronaldo and the squad. Their Round of 16 opponent will likely be a runner-up from Group J or nearby in the bracket, potentially Austria or a third-place qualifier. Portugal enter the tournament as legitimate title contenders. Their roster is stacked with talent from back to front. Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leao, and the defensive solidity of Ruben Dias make them difficult to beat on any given night. The Ronaldo narrative adds an emotional dimension that elevates the entire squad’s performance in knockout football.
Quarterfinalist 7: Germany
Germany win Group E and face a third-placed qualifier in the Round of 32. Their Round of 16 match is where their tournament gets serious, likely against the Netherlands or Japan. Germany are identified as a dark horse with a new-generation squad capable of upsetting the established powers. Wirtz and Musiala together are the most dangerous creative combination in the tournament. If Germany hit form early and carry momentum through the group stage into the knockouts, they are capable of beating any team they face. Julian Nagelsmann’s young squad has nothing to lose and everything to prove.
Quarterfinalist 8: Morocco
Morocco finish second in Group C behind Brazil and face a Round of 32 match against a third-placed qualifier. Their Round of 16 game will be genuinely competitive — potentially against Switzerland or Canada, two opponents that Morocco have the quality to beat. Morocco have not slowed down since their historic 2022 semi-final run. They have lost just once on the field in two years. Hakimi, Bounou, and coach Walid Regragui’s tactical discipline make them one of the most dangerous potential Quarterfinalists in the entire draw. Africa needs Morocco to go deep again. And Morocco have every reason to believe they can.
The Teams We Think Will Fall Short
Predicting Quarterfinalists also means predicting who does not make it. Here are the most significant non-qualifications in our bracket.
Norway are the most unfortunate non-Quarterfinalist on our list. They qualify from Group I in second place behind France and could go deep depending on their Round of 32 draw. Haaland in his first World Cup is one of the great individual storylines of the tournament. The difference between Norway reaching the Quarters and not is entirely dependent on whether their Round of 16 draw produces a manageable opponent. In a 48-team bracket, that is not guaranteed.
Netherlands win Group F and have a real chance of making the Quarters, but their projected Round of 16 path may bring them into contact with England or Argentina, which is a different kind of challenge. The AI simulation has Germany and the United States going out in the Round of 16, with Netherlands in the same bracket section. The Netherlands remain an outside contender at +2200 to win the tournament and are not easy to beat at knockout level. Consider them a strong reserve pick if any of our eight Quarterfinalists fall short.
Japan qualify from Group F and are capable of beating anyone in the Round of 32 or Round of 16. They proved that in Qatar by eliminating Germany and Spain from the group stage. They are the most likely team to spring a major upset in the early knockout rounds and could make the Quarters at the expense of a higher-seeded team.
Colombia finish second in Group K and carry enough quality to make the Round of 16. James Rodriguez at a World Cup has proven tournament pedigree. They are the most dangerous potential upset pick in the upper half of the bracket.
Our Full Predicted Quarter-Final Lineup
Based on all of the above, here are our eight predicted Quarterfinalists and how they are likely to be paired:
- France — Through Group I as winners, survive the Round of 32 and Round of 16 comfortably
- Argentina — Through Group J as winners, navigate the Round of 16 against Portugal or Colombia
- Spain — Through Group H as winners, handle a manageable path through the early knockout rounds
- England — Through Group L as winners, beat Germany or Netherlands in the Round of 16
- Brazil — Through Group C as winners, reach the Quarters with goals and momentum
- Portugal — Through Group K as winners, carry Ronaldo’s final World Cup narrative into the Quarters
- Germany — Through Group E as winners, beat Netherlands in a heavyweight Round of 16 clash
- Morocco — Through Group C as runners-up, navigate the Round of 16 to return to the Quarters for the second consecutive tournament
An AI simulation run by Squawka projects France, Netherlands, Brazil, England, Spain, Belgium, Argentina and Portugal as the eight Quarterfinalists — our list differs in swapping Belgium for Germany and Netherlands for Morocco, based on the strength of the group analysis and the specific bracket paths available.
The eight teams we have picked represent the most likely combination based on squad quality, draw, form, and tournament experience. But in a 48-team World Cup with a new format and more knockout rounds than ever before, the potential for chaos is greater than at any previous tournament. That is exactly what makes this summer so exciting.
Sources: RotoWire, Squawka, NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, beIN Sports, Bracket 2026, CBS Sports
