Nobody has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil lifted the trophy in 1958 and then again in 1962. That is 64 years without a single defending champion retaining the title. Germany tried in 2018 and went out in the group stage. France tried in 2002 and did not score a single goal. Spain tried in 2014 and crashed in the first round. The history of World Cup football is littered with defending champions who discovered that winning it once is hard enough. Winning it twice in a row is something else entirely.
Argentina know all of this. Coach Lionel Scaloni has spoken about the challenge openly. “To win, a lot of things have to come together. It’s not just about playing well. It’s very difficult. We are obviously going to try, just like Argentina does every time it steps up. Try to reach the maximum. It’s tough but not impossible,” he said in an interview with CONMEBOL.
Tough but not impossible. That is the honest assessment of the man who already did it once. Here is a full, detailed look at whether Argentina can actually do something that has not been done in over six decades.
What They Are Chasing and Why It Is So Hard
The challenge is not just tactical. It is structural. In the four years between tournaments, squads age, players lose their peak form, opponents study your system relentlessly, and the psychological burden of coming in as champions changes how a team approaches every game. Every opponent wants to beat you more. Every loss hits harder. Every injury feels more significant. Argentina are about to find all of that out.
The Injury Crisis That Has Overshadowed Their Preparations
Argentina had barely started preparing for the tournament when the injury news began rolling in. And it has not stopped. Lionel Messi is nursing a hamstring concern, goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez suffered a fractured finger, Cristian Romero is recovering from a knee ligament issue, Nahuel Molina and Gonzalo Montiel are managing muscle problems, Nico Paz missed his club’s recent match through injury, and Nicolas Gonzalez is still recovering from a muscle tear. Eight of the ten players on the injury list were part of the 2022 World Cup-winning squad.
That last detail is the most troubling one. This is not a rotation injury to a fringe player. This is the core of the squad, the players who were on the pitch in Qatar, simultaneously dealing with fitness issues in the final weeks before the tournament begins.
The good news is that the most important cases appear manageable. Martinez will avoid surgery on his fractured finger, with a recovery timeline of around 20 days, meaning he is expected to be fit in time for Argentina’s opening game against Algeria on June 16. Romero is racing to recover from a ligament sprain in his right knee. The two projected right-backs on Scaloni’s final list, Nahuel Molina and Gonzalo Montiel, are both nursing muscle injuries.
Scaloni has tried to keep calm publicly. “We are hoping his injury heals quickly, and we are waiting for him with open arms because he is incredibly important to this group,” Scaloni said of Martinez. “In any case, we have guys on the roster whom we trust completely, but there is no denying that Emiliano is fundamental to our system.” Those words reflect the situation perfectly. He trusts the depth, but he knows exactly what he needs.
The Messi Question
Everything about Argentina at this World Cup revolves around one question. Is Messi fit, and if he is, how much can he give them?
Messi suffered a hamstring muscle fatigue issue playing for Inter Miami in late May. The timing was deeply concerning. Medical tests confirmed muscle fatigue in his left hamstring, unsettling Argentina fans and management with the World Cup weeks away. Several key players including Messi are expected to miss the pre-tournament friendlies against Honduras and Iceland as the coaching staff prioritises fitness restoration before the group stage begins.
The important distinction is what kind of player Argentina need Messi to be. Messi does not need to run a tournament for seven matches anymore. He just needs to be there when it matters. Argentina have experience, balance, and belief from 2022, and they still trust him with the ball when the match gets tense. They proved in qualifying that they can beat top opposition without him. They beat Brazil home and away with Messi absent. The squad does not collapse without him. But with him, even at 75 or 80 percent fitness, Argentina become a fundamentally different and more dangerous team.
The Squad: Where They Are Strong
Beyond the injury concerns, the honest assessment of Argentina’s squad is that it remains one of the four or five best in the tournament. The core of players that led Argentina to end a 36-year World Cup title drought in Qatar is back to try and go on a similar run this summer.
In goal, Emiliano Martinez is among the two or three best shot-stoppers in the world and, crucially, the best penalty-saving goalkeeper in international football. He is the player most likely to save a shootout in the knockout rounds and the psychological presence that makes every opponent feel slightly less confident about their penalty kicks.
In defence, Romero and Lisandro Martinez form one of the most formidable centre-back partnerships heading into the tournament, bringing aggression, leadership, and composure in equal measure. The right-back injuries are a genuine concern, but Argentina’s defensive depth has been built over several cycles under Scaloni and remains solid even when personnel change.
In midfield, Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez are the two players whose absence would most significantly alter Argentina’s ceiling beyond Messi. They provide structure, mobility, and the intelligence to shift between defensive and offensive phases seamlessly. Rodrigo De Paul adds the grit and intensity that holds the midfield together in high-pressure moments.
In attack, Lautaro Martinez will be central to Argentina’s attack, and Julian Alvarez offers versatility and creativity, capable of playing wide, centrally, or in a supporting role. Both can carry the team without Messi and have proven it in the biggest matches. This attacking depth is one of the genuine differences between Argentina in 2022 and Argentina now.
The Tactical System and How Scaloni Builds a Champion
Lionel Scaloni also wants to become the first manager to win multiple World Cup titles since Vittorio Pozzo did so with Italy in 1934 and 1938. His own legacy is therefore tied directly to this tournament in the same way Messi’s is. Both men want the same thing and both have already achieved it once. That shared motivation matters.
Their Biggest Weakness
Argentina are not without vulnerabilities, and the teams they could face in the knockout rounds know exactly what they are. Argentina’s biggest weakness is their high defensive line and the pace-behind vulnerability it creates. France exposed it repeatedly in the 2022 final. Any opponent with elite pace in transition, including England, France, or Germany, could target that space in a knockout match.
The right-back injuries also expose a positional weakness that Scaloni will have to manage carefully. Argentina are at their most dangerous when their full-backs push forward and support attacks. If neither Molina nor Montiel is fully fit, that attacking dimension is reduced. And in a tournament where the margins between the top teams are razor thin, reduced options on the right side could cost them in a knockout game.
The aging core is also a reality. Losing Messi, Romero, or Martinez to injury could dramatically alter Argentina’s chances. The squad has enough quality to defend the title. However, repeating as champions is historically difficult.
The Group Stage: A Comfortable Path Into the Knockouts
Argentina will open up the defence of their title against Algeria and will also face Austria and Jordan in Group J. On paper this is one of the more favourable groups for a top seed, and Argentina are expected to advance comfortably. Algeria will provide a physical, defensive challenge. Austria brings European tactical discipline. Jordan are debutants who will be compact and well-organised.
This group is important not just for advancement but for building momentum and, crucially, managing the fitness of key players. Scaloni will almost certainly use the Jordan game to give Messi reduced minutes if needed, and the group stage is where he can fine-tune his system before the games that truly matter begin.
The Realistic Path to the Final
A realistic probability for Argentina reaching the final is estimated at around 28 to 32 percent. A title win remains possible but requires optimal conditions. The knockout bracket means they could face Brazil, England, or France before reaching the final. Any one of those matchups is a genuine 50-50 contest on the night.
What Argentina have that most teams cannot buy is knockout experience. They have been in this situation before. They know how to win tight games, how to survive a penalty shootout, and how to manage the burden of being the team everyone wants to beat. Argentina’s recent wins show consistency in high-pressure moments. They manage tempo late in games, maintain defensive discipline, and convert critical chances. The 2022 World Cup removed a historical burden and replaced it with structural confidence.
What the Odds and the Data Say
Argentina currently have an estimated 10 to 12 percent chance of winning the tournament, placing them among the top five contenders but behind several European powerhouses. A data-driven AI simulator gives Argentina a 14.2 percent probability of winning the tournament, behind France at 16.3 percent and Brazil at 18.7 percent.
Those numbers tell an honest story. Argentina are a genuine contender but not the outright favourite. The European teams have the depth advantage in squad quality. What Argentina have is something that data struggles to measure: the belief, the experience, and the leadership of a squad that has been through the hardest moments and come out the other side.
The Verdict: Can They Actually Do It?
Yes. Argentina can defend their title. But the honest answer is that it will require several things to go right simultaneously.
Messi needs to arrive fit and stay fit for the duration of the tournament. Martinez needs to be fully recovered from his broken finger before the knockout rounds begin. Romero needs to be sharp enough to anchor the defence in big knockout games. And the team needs to avoid the kind of psychological complacency that has destroyed so many defending champions before them.
If all of that comes together, Argentina have the tactical intelligence, the winning experience, the defensive solidity, and the attacking quality to beat any team they face over 90 or 120 minutes. They have done it before when nobody expected them to. They know how to win when the pressure is at its absolute highest.
As defending champions, Argentina head to the 2026 World Cup bidding to become the first nation to retain the title since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. The history books are waiting. The only question is whether this squad, with this coach, and with one last chapter from the greatest player the sport has ever seen, has enough left to write themselves into them.
Sources: beIN Sports, Open Magazine, World Soccer Talk, ESPN, FOX Sports, Tips GG, Mundo Albiceleste, myKhel
