Group I is the toughest group at the 2026 World Cup. The world’s number one ranked team. The most dangerous striker on the planet making his World Cup debut. One of Africa’s most powerful sides. And Iraq, returning to the World Cup for the first time in 40 years. Three games in this group will be must-watch television. Here is how we predict it plays out.
The Teams
France
France are the world’s number one ranked nation and joint favourites to win the tournament at +500. Mbappe, Dembele, Olise, Maignan, Saliba, this is the most complete squad at the 2026 World Cup from front to back. Group I is tough on paper but France have enough quality to win all three games comfortably if they are focused from the opening whistle.
Norway
Erling Haaland makes his World Cup debut here. 55 goals in 49 international appearances. 16 qualifying goals in 8 games. Norway qualified for the first time since 1998 almost entirely because of him. Martin Odegaard gives Haaland the service he needs. This is Norway’s greatest opportunity to show the world what they can do, and their opening group game is against France, the biggest stage possible for Haaland’s first World Cup appearance.
Senegal
Africa’s second strongest team at this tournament. Koulibaly marshals the defence with authority. Nicolas Jackson provides the goal threat. Sadio Mane brings experience and moments of brilliance in his likely final major tournament. Group I is their toughest possible assignment but Senegal have beaten higher-ranked European sides before and will not approach these games with fear.
Iraq
Returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1986. A proud footballing nation making history just by being here. Group I against France, Norway, and Senegal is about as difficult as it gets for a returning nation. Their target is competitive performances and at least one moment of joy for their fans.
Match Predictions
Matchday 1
France vs Senegal — France 2-0 Senegal. France are too strong at full strength but Senegal will make them work for every goal. Mbappe scores one from the penalty spot. A 2-0 scoreline flatters the margin slightly.
Norway vs Iraq — Norway 4-0 Iraq. Haaland announces himself to a global World Cup audience with a brace. Odegaard adds one. Iraq cannot contain the Norwegian forward line over 90 minutes.
Matchday 2
France vs Norway — France 2-1 Norway. The match of the group stage. Haaland scores against France, which would be one of the moments of the tournament. But Mbappe and Dembele are simply too much. France edge a genuinely competitive match.
Senegal vs Iraq — Senegal 2-0 Iraq. Senegal are too experienced and too well-organised for Iraq. Nicolas Jackson scores, Mane gets involved. Comfortable win.
Matchday 3
France vs Iraq — France 5-0 Iraq. Deschamps rotates key players with qualification secured. The squad depth produces goals anyway. Rayan Cherki gets his moment. Iraq defend with everything they have but are overwhelmed.
Norway vs Senegal — Norway 2-1 Senegal. The decisive game for second place. Haaland wins it for Norway with a header from an Odegaard delivery. Senegal make a late push but cannot find the equaliser.
Predicted Final Standings
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 9 |
| Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
Who Advances
France advance as group winners with a perfect record. Norway advance in second place with Haaland having made one of the great World Cup first impressions. Senegal are the unlucky elimination, a strong side who drew the toughest possible group. Iraq will return home proud of their historic participation.
The Key Match
France vs Norway on Matchday 2 is the most anticipated group stage game of the entire tournament. Mbappe versus Haaland. The world’s number one ranked team against the debutants carried by the most prolific striker alive. It will be watched by hundreds of millions of people globally. Both teams will elevate their performances for the occasion. France win but Norway leave having confirmed that Haaland at a World Cup is every bit the event the world expected.
Sources: FOX Sports, Yahoo Sports
